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Title: A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers
Authors: Huang, Jian-Guo 
Zhang, Yaling
Wang, Minhuang
Yu, Xiaohan
Deslauriers, Annie 
Fonti, Patrick 
Liang, Eryuan 
Mäkinen, Harri 
Oberhuber, Walter 
Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K. 
Tognetti, Roberto
Treml, Vaclav 
Yang, Bao
Zhai, Lihong
Zhang, Jiao-Lin
Antonucci, Serena
Bergeron, Yves
Camarero, Jesus Julio 
Campelo, Filipe 
Čufar, Katarina 
Cuny, Henri E. 
De Luis, Martin 
Fajstavr, Marek
Giovannelli, Alessio
Gričar, Jožica 
Gruber, Andreas 
Gryc, Vladimír 
Güney, Aylin
Jyske, Tuula 
Kašpar, Jakub
King, Gregory 
Krause, Cornelia 
Lemay, Audrey
Liu, Feng
Lombardi, Fabio
del Castillo, Edurne Martinez 
Morin, Hubert 
Nabais, Cristina 
Nöjd, Pekka 
Peters, Richard L
Prislan, Peter 
Saracino, Antonio
Shishov, Vladimir V
Swidrak, Irene 
Vavrčík, Hanuš 
Vieira, Joana 
Zeng, Qiao
Liu, Yu
Rossi, Sergio
Keywords: cell wall thickening; Northern Hemisphere conifer; photoperiod; spring forcing; winter chilling; xylem phenology
Issue Date: Mar-2023
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
Project: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Number: 32001118, 32001138 and 32271653; Xinjiang Regional Collaborative Innovation Project, Grant/Award Number: 2022E01045; Zhejiang University, Grant/Award Number: 108000*1942222R1 
Serial title, monograph or event: Global Change Biology
Volume: 29
Issue: 6
Abstract: Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (-3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°-66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.
ISSN: 1354-1013
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16543
Rights: openAccess
Appears in Collections:FCTUC Ciências da Vida - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais
I&D CFE - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais

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