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Title: | A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers | Authors: | Huang, Jian-Guo Zhang, Yaling Wang, Minhuang Yu, Xiaohan Deslauriers, Annie Fonti, Patrick Liang, Eryuan Mäkinen, Harri Oberhuber, Walter Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K. Tognetti, Roberto Treml, Vaclav Yang, Bao Zhai, Lihong Zhang, Jiao-Lin Antonucci, Serena Bergeron, Yves Camarero, Jesus Julio Campelo, Filipe Čufar, Katarina Cuny, Henri E. De Luis, Martin Fajstavr, Marek Giovannelli, Alessio Gričar, Jožica Gruber, Andreas Gryc, Vladimír Güney, Aylin Jyske, Tuula Kašpar, Jakub King, Gregory Krause, Cornelia Lemay, Audrey Liu, Feng Lombardi, Fabio del Castillo, Edurne Martinez Morin, Hubert Nabais, Cristina Nöjd, Pekka Peters, Richard L Prislan, Peter Saracino, Antonio Shishov, Vladimir V Swidrak, Irene Vavrčík, Hanuš Vieira, Joana Zeng, Qiao Liu, Yu Rossi, Sergio |
Keywords: | cell wall thickening; Northern Hemisphere conifer; photoperiod; spring forcing; winter chilling; xylem phenology | Issue Date: | Mar-2023 | Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell | Project: | National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Number: 32001118, 32001138 and 32271653; Xinjiang Regional Collaborative Innovation Project, Grant/Award Number: 2022E01045; Zhejiang University, Grant/Award Number: 108000*1942222R1 | Serial title, monograph or event: | Global Change Biology | Volume: | 29 | Issue: | 6 | Abstract: | Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (-3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°-66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks. | URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/10316/113899 | ISSN: | 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.16543 | Rights: | openAccess |
Appears in Collections: | FCTUC Ciências da Vida - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais I&D CFE - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais |
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Global Change Biology - 2022 - Huang - A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere.pdf | 5.4 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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