Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
https://hdl.handle.net/10316/96242
Título: | Applying real options to port infrastructure expansion: the case of a Brazilian port | Autor: | Godinho, Pedro Manuel Cortesão Félix Souza, João Carlos Torres, Pedro Marcelo Amado Garcia da Rocha |
Palavras-chave: | Ports; Simulation; Real Options | Data: | 2-Nov-2021 | Relatório da Série N.º: | CeBER Working paper; | Título da revista, periódico, livro ou evento: | CeBER Working paper | Resumo: | This case study applies Monte Carlo-based real options to analyse the expansion of a port. A stochastic model is defined for the Santarém port, in Brazil, and the optimal moment for expanding the terminal is determined. The application resorts to a common spreadsheet and a simulation add-in, allowing the quantification of both the value of expanding the terminal and the flexibility to determine when to expand. The results allow us to conclude that deterministic cash flow models, based on the expected value, may lead to important biases in projects with capacity constraints. We also conclude that the expansion option may have a high value, which is strongly determined by the initial conditions, and that the expansion thresholds (the values of demand that trigger the expansion) change significantly along the project. | URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/10316/96242 | Direitos: | openAccess |
Aparece nas coleções: | I&D CeBER - Working Papers |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|---|
wp-ceber-2021-9-3.pdf | Applying real options to port infrastructure expansion: the case of a Brazilian port | 508.51 kB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |
Visualizações de página
161
Visto em 16/jul/2024
Downloads
53
Visto em 16/jul/2024
Google ScholarTM
Verificar
Todos os registos no repositório estão protegidos por leis de copyright, com todos os direitos reservados.