Modelling temporal landscape configuration in montado system cover and biodiversity

Abstract

Montado, a human shaped agro-silvopastoral system in Portugal, has been experiencing series of changes following the transformation of agricultural policies. Such changes are responsible for altering the structure and composition of montado landscape and hence the biodiversity of the system. Management practices in montado system usually focus on a single and common land use (agroforestry) that represent only part of montado landscape. A recently developed StDM (Stochastic Dynamic Modelling) was applied to model the spatial and temporal patterns in the system and predict changes in biodiversity patterns of passeriform species considering both with and without agroforestry management. Model outputs showed the land use dynamics favoring the expansion of areas with intense and intermediate canopy at the expense of open areas. This resulted in a declining temporal and spatial trend for species richness, with the higher declining rate observed for open area species. Contrary to our expectation, the species richness is even more reduced with the management of agroforestry. Therefore, a detailed understanding on the complexity and balance among different land uses in the system followed by augmentation of management efforts to other biodiversity enhancing land use types will improve the biodiversity of the system than focusing only on a single or few land use types.