Title: | Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
Authors: | Ong, Kanyin Liane Stafford, Lauryn K. McLaughlin, Susan A. Boyko, Edward J. Vollset, Stein Emil Smith, Amanda E. Dalton, Bronte E. Duprey, Joe Cruz, Jessica A. Hagins, Hailey Lindstedt, Paulina A. Aali, Amirali Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Melsew Dagne Abbasian, Mohammadreza Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abd ElHafeez, Samar Abd-Rabu, Rami Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abdullah, Abu Yousuf Md Abedi, Vida Abidi, Hassan Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Zaid, Ahmed Adane, Tigist Demssew Adane, Denberu Eshetie Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adegboye, Oyelola A. Adekanmbi, Victor Adepoju, Abiola Victor Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afolabi, Rotimi Felix Agarwal, Gina Aghdam, Zahra Babaei Agudelo-Botero, Marcela Aguilera Arriagada, Constanza Elizabeth Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmadi, Ali Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Syed Anees Ajami, Marjan Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Al Hamad, Hanadi Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz AL-Ahdal, Tareq Mohammed Ali Alalwan, Tariq A. Al-Aly, Ziyad AlBataineh, Mohammad T Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alemi, Sharifullah Ali, Hassam Alinia, Tahereh Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Firehiwot Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amiri, Sohrab Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi Andrei, Catalina Liliana Anjana, Ranjit Mohan Ansar, Adnan Ansari, Golnoosh Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Arabloo, Jalal Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Areda, Demelash Arifin, Hidayat Arkew, Mesay Armocida, Benedetta Ärnlöv, Johan Artamonov, Anton A. Arulappan, Judie Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Arumugam, Ashokan Aryan, Zahra Asemu, Mulu Tiruneh Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Askari, Elaheh Asmelash, Daniel Astell-Burt, Thomas Athar, Mohammad Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Avila-Burgos, Leticia Awaisu, Ahmed Azadnajafabad, Sina B, Darshan B. 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Calina, Daniela Campos, Luciana Aparecida Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. Cao, Yin Cao, Chao Car, Josip Carvalho, Márcia Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. Catalá-López, Ferrán Cerin, Ester Chadwick, Joshua Chandrasekar, Eeshwar K. Chanie, Gashaw Sisay Charan, Jaykaran Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chauhan, Kirti Cheema, Huzaifa Ahmad Chekol Abebe, Endeshaw Chen, Simiao Cherbuin, Nicolas Chichagi, Fatemeh Chidambaram, Saravana Babu Cho, William C. S. Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Chowdhury, Rajiv Chowdhury, Enayet Karim Chu, Dinh-Toi Chukwu, Isaac Sunday Chung, Sheng-Chia Coberly, Kaleb Columbus, Alyssa Contreras, Daniela Cousin, Ewerton Criqui, Michael H. Cruz-Martins, Natália Cuschieri, Sarah Dabo, Bashir Dadras, Omid Dai, Xiaochen Damasceno, Albertino Antonio Moura Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Das, Saswati Dascalu, Ana Maria Dash, Nihar Ranjan Dashti, Mohsen Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa Debele, Gebiso Roba Delpasand, Kourosh Demisse, Fitsum Wolde Demissie, Getu Debalkie Deng, Xinlei Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Deo, Salil V. Dervišević, Emina Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai Desale, Aragaw Tesfaw Dessie, Anteneh Mengist Desta, Fikreab Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman Dey, Sourav Dhama, Kuldeep Dhimal, Meghnath Diao, Nancy Diaz, Daniel Dinu, Monica Diress, Mengistie Djalalinia, Shirin Doan, Linh Phuong Dongarwar, Deepa dos Santos Figueiredo, Francisco Winter Duncan, Bruce B. Dutta, Siddhartha Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian Edinur, Hisham Atan Ekholuenetale, Michael Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus Elgendy, Islam Y Elhadi, Muhammed El-Huneidi, Waseem Elmeligy, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmonem, Mohamed A. 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Haile, Teklehaimanot Gereziher Hajibeygi, Ramtin Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin Halwani, Rabih Hamidi, Samer Hankey, Graeme J. Hannan, Md Abdul Haque, Shafiul Harandi, Hamid Harlianto, Netanja I. Hasan, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Syed Shahzad Hasani, Hamidreza Hassanipour, Soheil Hassen, Mohammed Bheser Haubold, Johannes Hayat, Khezar Heidari, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Hessami, Kamran Hiraike, Yuta Holla, Ramesh Hossain, Sahadat Hossain, Md Shakhaoat Hosseini, Mohammad-Salar Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Hassan Huang, Junjie Huda, Md Nazmul Hussain, Salman Huynh, Hong-Han Hwang, Bing-Fang Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel Ikeda, Nayu Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Milena D. Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja Iqbal, Afrin Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rakibul M. Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah Iso, Hiroyasu Isola, Gaetano Itumalla, Ramaiah Iwagami, Masao Iwu, Chidozie C. D. Iyamu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyasu, Assefa N. Jacob, Louis Jafarzadeh, Abdollah Jahrami, Haitham Jain, Rajesh Jaja, Chinwe Jamalpoor, Zahra Jamshidi, Elham Janakiraman, Balamurugan Jayanna, Krishnamurthy Jayapal, Sathish Kumar Jayaram, Shubha Jayawardena, Ranil Jebai, Rime Jeong, Wonjeong Jin, Yinzi Jokar, Mohammad Jonas, Jost B. Joseph, Nitin Joseph, Abel Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma Joukar, Farahnaz Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy Kaambwa, Billingsley Kabir, Ali Kabthymer, Robel Hussen Kadashetti, Vidya Kahe, Farima Kalhor, Rohollah Kandel, Himal Karanth, Shama D. Karaye, Ibraheem M. Karkhah, Samad Katoto, Patrick D..M. C. Kaur, Navjot Kazemian, Sina Kebede, Sewnet Adem Khader, Yousef Saleh Khajuria, Himanshu Khalaji, Amirmohammad Khan, Moien A. B. Khan, Maseer Khan, Ajmal Khanal, Saval Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad Khater, Amir M. Khateri, Sorour khorashadizadeh, Fatemeh Khubchandani, Jagdish Kibret, Biruk Getahun Kim, Min Seo Kimokoti, Ruth W. Kisa, Adnan Kivimäki, Mika Kolahi, Ali-Asghar Komaki, Somayeh Kompani, Farzad Koohestani, Hamid Reza Korzh, Oleksii Kostev, Karel Kothari, Nikhil Koyanagi, Ai Krishan, Kewal Krishnamoorthy, Yuvaraj Kuate Defo, Barthelemy Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Md Abdul Kumar, Rakesh Kumar, Harish Kundu, Satyajit Kurniasari, Maria Dyah Kuttikkattu, Ambily La Vecchia, Carlo Lallukka, Tea Larijani, Bagher Larsson, Anders O. Latief, Kamaluddin Lawal, Basira Kankia Le, Thao Thi Thu Le, Trang Thi Bich Lee, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Munjae Lee, Wei-Chen Lee, Paul H. Lee, Sang-woong Lee, Seung Won Legesse, Samson Mideksa Lenzi, Jacopo Li, Yongze Li, Ming-Chieh Lim, Stephen S. Lim, Lee-Ling Liu, Xuefeng Liu, Chaojie Lo, Chun-Han Lopes, Graciliana Lorkowski, Stefan Lozano, Rafael Lucchetti, Giancarlo Maghazachi, Azzam A. Mahasha, Phetole Walter Mahjoub, Soleiman Mahmoud, Mansour Adam Mahmoudi, Razzagh Mahmoudimanesh, Marzieh Mai, Anh Tuan Majeed, Azeem Majma Sanaye, Pantea Makris, Konstantinos Christos Malhotra, Kashish Malik, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Mallhi, Tauqeer Hussain Malta, Deborah Carvalho Mamun, Abdullah A. Mansouri, Borhan Marateb, Hamid Reza Mardi, Parham Martini, Santi Martorell, Miquel Marzo, Roy Rillera Masoudi, Reza Masoudi, Sahar Mathews, Elezebeth Maugeri, Andrea Mazzaglia, Giampiero Mekonnen, Teferi Meshkat, Mahboobeh Mestrovic, Tomislav Miao Jonasson, Junmei Miazgowski, Tomasz Michalek, Irmina Maria Minh, Le Huu Nhat Mini, G. K. Miranda, J. Jaime Mirfakhraie, Reza Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, Mohammad Misganaw, Awoke Misgina, Kebede Haile Mishra, Manish Moazen, Babak Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohammadi, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Mohsen Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah Mohammadshahi, Marita Mohseni, Alireza Mojiri-forushani, Hoda Mokdad, Ali H. Momtazmanesh, Sara Monasta, Lorenzo Moniruzzaman, Md Mons, Ute Montazeri, Fateme Moodi Ghalibaf, AmirAli Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Maryam Moradi Sarabi, Mostafa Morovatdar, Negar Morrison, Shane Douglas Morze, Jakub Mossialos, Elias Mostafavi, Ebrahim Mueller, Ulrich Otto Mulita, Francesk Mulita, Admir Murillo-Zamora, Efrén Musa, Kamarul Imran Mwita, Julius C Nagaraju, Shankar Prasad Naghavi, Mohsen Nainu, Firzan Nair, Tapas Sadasivan Najmuldeen, Hastyar Hama Rashid Nangia, Vinay Nargus, Shumaila Naser, Abdallah Y Nassereldine, Hasan Natto, Zuhair S Nauman, Javaid Nayak, Biswa Prakash Ndejjo, Rawlance Negash, Hadush Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Dang H Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Hien Quang Niazi, Robina Khan Nigatu, Yeshambel T Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini Nizam, Muhammad A. Nnyanzi, Lawrence Achilles Noreen, Mamoona Noubiap, Jean Jacques Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Chimezie Igwegbe Oancea, Bogdan Odogwu, Nkechi Martina Odukoya, Oluwakemi Ololade Ojha, Vivek Anand Okati-Aliabad, Hassan Okekunle, Akinkunmi Paul Okonji, Osaretin Christabel Okwute, Patrick Godwin Olufadewa, Isaac Iyinoluwa Onwujekwe, Obinna E. Ordak, Michal Ortiz, Alberto Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi Oulhaj, Abderrahim Owolabi, Mayowa O. Padron-Monedero, Alicia Padubidri, Jagadish Rao Palladino, Raffaele Panagiotakos, Demosthenes Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra Pandey, Ashok Pandey, Anamika Pandi-Perumal, Seithikurippu R. Pantea Stoian, Anca Mihaela Pardhan, Shahina Parekh, Tarang Parekh, Utsav Pasovic, Maja Patel, Jay Patel, Jenil R. Paudel, Uttam Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino Pereira, Marcos Perico, Norberto Perna, Simone Petcu, Ionela-Roxana Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily Podder, Vivek Postma, Maarten J. 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Yang, Lin Yatsuya, Hiroshi Yesiltepe, Metin Yi, Siyan Yohannis, Hunachew Kibret Yonemoto, Naohiro You, Yuyi Zaman, Sojib Bin Zamora, Nelson Zare, Iman Zarea, Kourosh Zarrintan, Armin Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich Zeru, Naod Gebrekrstos Zhang, Zhi-Jiang Zhong, Chenwen Zhou, Jingjing Zielińska, Magdalena Zikarg, Yossef Teshome Zodpey, Sanjay Zoladl, Mohammad Zou, Zhiyong Zumla, Alimuddin Zuniga, Yves Miel H. Magliano, Dianna J. Murray, Christopher J. L. Hay, Simon I. Vos, Theo |
Issue Date: | 15-Jul-2023 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Serial title, monograph or event: | The Lancet |
Volume: | 402 |
Issue: | 10397 |
Abstract: | Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.
Methods Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age
groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured
in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability
[YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes,
incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total
(including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational
and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a
Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific
literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1
diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability
weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical
population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We
used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk
factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use,
high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast
type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors,
respectively.
Findings In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes
worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level,
the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the
regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world’s highest age-specific prevalence of
diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older
adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and
95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were
attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide
between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with
expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6)
in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of
204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.
Interpretation Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of
diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the
disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a
rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge.
It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform
strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/10316/112212 |
ISSN: | 01406736 |
DOI: | 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01301-6 |
Rights: | openAccess |
Appears in Collections: | FLUC Geografia - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais
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