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https://hdl.handle.net/10316/106835
Title: | The impact of population ageing on end-of-life care in Scotland: projections of place of death and recommendations for future service provision | Authors: | Finucane, Anne M Bone, Anna E Evans, Catherine J Gomes, Bárbara Meade, Richard Higginson, Irene J Murray, Scott A |
Keywords: | Forecasts; Projections; Frailty; Palliative care; Place of death; Care homes; Nursing homes | Issue Date: | 12-Dec-2019 | Publisher: | Springer Nature | Project: | research grant awarded to A.M.F and S.A.M by Marie Curie UK HEE/NIHR Senior Clinical Lectureship Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation |
Serial title, monograph or event: | BMC Palliative Care | Volume: | 18 | Issue: | 1 | Abstract: | Background: Global annual deaths are rising. It is essential to examine where future deaths may occur to facilitate decisions regarding future service provision and resource allocation. Aims: To project where people will die from 2017 to 2040 in an ageing country with advanced integrated palliative care, and to prioritise recommendations based on these trends. Methods: Population-based trend analysis of place of death for people that died in Scotland (2004–2016) and projections using simple linear modelling (2017–2040); Transparent Expert Consultation to prioritise recommendations in response to projections. Results: Deaths are projected to increase by 15.9% from 56,728 in 2016 (32.8% aged 85+ years) to 65,757 deaths in 2040 (45% aged 85+ years). Between 2004 and 2016, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (19.8– 23.4% and 14.5–18.8%), while the proportion of hospital deaths declined (58.0–50.1%). If current trends continue, the numbers of deaths at home and in care homes will increase, and two-thirds will die outside hospital by 2040. To sustain current trends, priorities include: 1) to increase and upskill a community health and social care workforce through education, training and valuing of care work; 2) to build community care capacity through informal carer support and community engagement; 3) to stimulate a realistic public debate on death, dying and sustainable funding. Conclusion: To sustain current trends, health and social care provision in the community needs to grow to support nearly 60% more people at the end-of-life by 2040; otherwise hospital deaths will increase. | URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/10316/106835 | ISSN: | 1472-684X | DOI: | 10.1186/s12904-019-0490-x | Rights: | openAccess |
Appears in Collections: | FMUC Medicina - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais |
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