Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10316/11764
Title: Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective
Authors: Marinheiro, Carlos F. 
Keywords: Fiscal sustainability; Sustainability of public debt; Intertemporal budget constraint; Government deficits and debt; Portugal
Issue Date: 2005
Publisher: FEUC. Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros
Citation: Estudos do GEMF. 1 (2005)
Abstract: This paper analyses the sustainability of Portuguese public finances, making use of a long dataset with more than a full century of observations. The use of such a long dataset is appropriate because both unit root and cointegration tests require a long period of data. The sustainability testing procedure is based on unit root and cointegration tests. We find considerable evidence in favour of sustainability for the 1903-2003 period. The overall conclusion of sustainability for the 1903-2003 period is not maintained for the more recent 1975-2003 period, which is characterised by the largest GDP deficit ratios of our sample. This latter period appears to signal a shift to an unsustainable path in Portuguese fiscal policy. Hence, our results suggest that fiscal consolidation efforts must, in fact, be continued in Portugal.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10316/11764
Rights: openAccess
Appears in Collections:FEUC- Vários

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